Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2026

Continued long-range Ukrainian strikes against cities deep in the Russian rear demonstrate Russia’s inability to reliably defend the major cities and infrastructure facilities of European Russia against drone and missile strikes.

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Ukrainian strikes are inflicting significant damage across a wide array of Russian cities. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 5 that Ukrainian strikes against the Tuapse Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai in April 2026 and on May 1 caused over $300 million worth of damage to the refinery and the Tuapse port infrastructure.[10] Satellite imagery published on May 5 shows two damaged workshops at the Sverdlov Plant, a key Russian explosives components manufacturer, in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, following a Ukrainian strike on April 30.[11] Ukrainian forces have increased their long-range strike campaign in the past several weeks, targeting several major Russian cities, including Moscow and Chelyabinsk cities; Yekaterinburg, Sverdlovsk Oblast; Primorsk and Ust-Luga, Leningrad Oblast; and Tuapse and Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai.[12]

Russia’s threat to retaliate against Ukraine for allegedly planned strikes against Moscow during Victory Day reflects Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recognition that he cannot reliably defend these deep rear areas, including his capital, from Ukrainian strikes.

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Ukrainian forces’ effective use of interceptor drones has reportedly forced Russian forces to shift to using Shahed drones against frontline rather than long-range targets. A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed on May 5 that Russian forces are increasingly using Shahed drones to strike frontline rather than rear-area targets due to the effectiveness of Ukrainian interceptor drones.[67] The milblogger criticized the Russian long-range strike campaign as ineffective due to inconsistent targeting cycles that shift target sets too frequently without completing campaigns and stated that larger numbers of munitions would not improve the situation due to the limitations caused by Russian forces’ insufficient focus on specific target sets.[68]

Russia has lost the frontline war, lost the drone wave saturation war, and lost the rear infrastructure defensive war. Further there is no reasonable possibility here russia can claw back momentum given Ukraine is accelerating along all three of these dimensions of pressure.

This is hopeless for russia.

edit another revealing quote

Russian forces significantly increased their usage of glide bombs in March and April 2026.

Russia is still leaning on glide bombs for artillery pressure on the front and given russia’s collapsing air defenses along the frontline and at depth this is a glass cannon strategy that will fail sooner or later.